When the economic signals don’t agree

By John Kenney, Cotney Consulting Group. 

How roofing contractors should plan for slower growth, uneven demand and continued volatility.

If you are having trouble deciding what the economy is telling you right now, you are not alone. The signals do not agree. 

Total nonfarm payroll employment declined by 23,000 jobs in July, while construction added 22,000. The unemployment rate edged down to 4.1%, even as labor-force participation remained at 61.4%. The broader economy is still growing, but not rapidly. Real GDP increased at a 1.5% annual rate in the second quarter, down from 2.1% in the first quarter. 

National construction backlog still looks reasonably healthy, yet architecture billings remain weak. Some contractors are carrying significant amounts of work, while others are telling me their runway is getting noticeably shorter. Data centers and power-related construction continue to perform extremely well, while several traditional commercial and residential markets remain much softer. 

Depending on which number you look at, you can make a case that the economy is still growing, the labor market is weakening or construction is holding up better than other sectors. All three can be true at the same time. 

That is a difficult environment to plan around, but it does not make planning impossible. I do not believe the current data tells us a severe recession is inevitable. I also do not believe it gives roofing contractors much reason to assume everything will work itself out. 

The more prudent position is somewhere in between. For business planning, I would operate on the assumption of slower growth, increasingly uneven demand, continued cost volatility, and elevated policy risk, while maintaining sufficientliquidity and operating flexibility to handle a genuine downturn if several of these pressures converge. 

That may not be the most exciting forecast, but it may be the most useful one. 

The headline economy is not the contractor economy 

One of the biggest mistakes business owners can make is assuming national economic statistics describe what is happening inside their company. They do not. Roofing contractors do not operate at the national average. 

They operate within a specific geographic area, serve a particular customer base, operate in certain market sectors, and depend on specific general contractors, owners, manufacturers, and suppliers. That means two roofing companies located a hundred miles apart can experience completely different economies. 

One contractor may be heavily exposed to data centers, health care, power generation or public-sector work and have more opportunities than the company can reasonably pursue. Another may depend heavily on retail, traditional office, private development or residential construction and find projects moving slower, owners hesitating, and competition becoming much more aggressive. 

Both companies are operating in the same national economy. They are simply experiencing different versions of it. That distinction matters when preparing a business plan. 

The question should not simply be, “How is construction doing?” The better question is, “How are the markets we depend on doing?” 

Construction is splitting into different markets 

The current backlog numbers illustrate the problem. Associated Builders and Contractors reported national construction backlog at 8.8 months in June. On the surface, that appears healthy. Look deeper, and the story becomes more complicated. 

Contractors involved in data-center work reported a backlog of 11.0 months, compared with 8.5 months for contractors without data-center exposure. Earlier in the year, ABC also reported that backlog growth was concentrated among the largest contractors, while smaller revenue groups showed weaker year-over-year results. 

That tells me we do not have one construction market right now. We have several. Data centers remain extremely strong, power-related construction continues to attract significant investment, and certain infrastructure and institutional sectorsremain active. 

At the same time, parts of manufacturing, private commercial development, office construction, and residential activity remain under pressure. Strong markets are becoming even stronger, while weak markets are becoming even weaker. 

The national average sits somewhere between the two and may accurately describe neither. That is why roofing executives need to understand their own market mix much better than they understand the national average. 

Backlog may be sending the wrong signal 

I have always paid close attention to backlog. It is one of the most important forward-looking indicators for a roofing company, but backlog must be understood correctly. A contractor can have plenty of work under contract and still have a production problem developing. 

I believe there are really three kinds of backlog. Reported backlog is the work you have under contract. Executable backlog is the work you realistically expect to move into production during the period planned. Profitable backlog is executable work that still meets the company’s margin expectations. 

Those numbers are not always the same. A roofing contractor may have a large project under contract today that is not scheduled to reach the roofing scope for another six months. If financing, permitting, another trade or the general construction schedule pushes that project back another 90 days, the project technically remains in backlog. However, the crew that was supposed to start that roof in October still needs somewhere to work. 

That is the difference between reported backlog and executable backlog. 

In my work with roofing and specialty contractors, I generally consider a quality, executable backlog of six months or more a healthy operating position. When the backlog approaches three months, I want leadership to monitor the bidding pipeline, award timing, and project start dates very closely. When it approaches two months, I become concerned because a single project delay, a lost award or a customer financing issue can quickly create a production gap. 

That is not a published national industry standard. It is an operating benchmark developed from years of managing and advising roofing companies. 

Right now, I am hearing more concern from roofing contractors around the country about shorter backlog visibility, delayed starts, and work that does not feel as certain as it did several months ago. That field feedback deserves attention. 

A contractor with nine months of reported backlog but only four months of reliably executable work has a four-month problem, not a nine-month solution. 

Labor is weakening without becoming easy 

The labor market is sending another mixed signal. National hiring has slowed significantly. May and June payroll gains were revised lower, and total nonfarm employment declined in July. Labor-force participation has also fallen since the beginning of the year. 

Those are legitimate signs of a cooling labor market, but roofing contractors should not assume that means skilled people will suddenly become easy to find. They will not. 

A slower national economy may increase the number of people seeking work, but it does not automatically create experienced roofing estimators, project managers, superintendents, service technicians or foremen. Those skills take years to develop. 

Our industry is also dealing with a generational transition as experienced people retire and companies compete for a limited pool of proven talent. That creates another planning challenge. 

Contractors should be cautious about adding overhead simply because they expect future growth. They should be equally cautious about cutting experienced people too quickly because the economic headlines turn negative. Replacing a strong estimator or project manager twelve months from now may be much more difficult than retaining that person through a slower period. 

The forward pipeline deserves attention 

Backlog tells us what contractors already have. Architecture and design activity can tell us something about what may be coming. That is why I believe the Architecture Billings Index deserves attention. 

The June Architecture Billings Index came in at 47.3, remaining below the 50 level associated with growth. Architecture-firm backlog also declined from 6.6 months in the first quarter to 6.3 months in the second quarter. 

I would not use that information to predict a construction collapse. I would use it as another reason not to become complacent. Design work occurs well before construction, and when design activity remains weak for an extended period, it can eventually result in fewer projects reaching the bidding stage. 

That becomes particularly important as contractors begin developing their 2027 budgets. The work you are installing today was often designed and financed many months ago. The condition of the design pipeline today may tell us more about the opportunities available next year. 

Delays may matter more than cancellations 

There is another issue I believe contractors sometimes underestimate. Projects do not have to disappear to hurt your business. They only need to move. 

Contractor surveys this year have continued to show a significant number of projects postponed, scaled back or canceled. From an operational standpoint, a postponement can sometimes be nearly as disruptive as a cancellation. 

Imagine you have a $2 million roofing project scheduled to begin in October. The owner still intends to build it, the contract still exists, and the project remains in your backlog. But financing problems push the start into February. 

Your backlog report may barely change, while your October production schedule changes dramatically. Now you have crews without the work you expected, equipment sitting idle, overhead continuing, and cash flow shifting. Other jobs may need to be accelerated to fill the hole. 

That is why contractors need to talk with general contractors and owners about more than whether a project is still active. Ask whether the start date is still realistic. That conversation can be far more valuable than simply looking at the backlog report. 

Costs have not returned to normal 

A slowing economy would be easier to manage if costs were declining at the same time. That is not necessarily the environment contractors are operating in. 

July’s inflation reports are a good example of why the headlines can be misleading. Consumer prices rose only 0.1% in July, and the annual inflation rate eased slightly to 3.4%. Producer prices were flat overall for the month. That soundsencouraging, and it is, but it does not mean prices are falling. 

If inflation drops from 4% to 3%, that does not mean prices fell 1%. It means prices are still increasing, just at a slower rate than before. The same distinction matters on the producer side. Even with no overall increase in July, producer prices were still 4.7% higher than a year earlier. 

For construction, the picture was even more important. Construction input prices edged up 0.1% in July and remained 7.4% higher than a year earlier. A lower inflation rate can slow the erosion of margins, but it does not automatically restore them. 

Material prices remain elevated, insurance continues to pressure overhead and skilled labor costs remain high. Fuel and freight can change quickly and recent disruptions involving global refinery capacity and major shipping routes are another reminder that energy costs can move independently of the broader economic cycle. Financing also remains expensive compared with the environment contractors grew accustomed to years ago. 

That creates one of the more difficult combinations for any business. Slower growth reduces pricing power, higher costs squeeze margins, and shorter backlog increases the temptation to chase work. 

That is where discipline matters. The worst response to a weakening market can be filling the schedule with low-margin work simply because everyone is worried about keeping crews busy. 

Busy and profitable are not the same thing. That lesson becomes even more important when the market starts slowing. 

Build a plan that does not require you to be right 

This is the part I believe matters most as contractors prepare for 2027. The best business plan in an uncertain economy is not the one built around the most accurate forecast. It is the one that still works when the forecast is wrong. 

I would build next year’s plan around three scenarios. The base case assumes slower growth, uneven construction demand, and continued cost volatility. The upside case assumes financing improves, project starts accelerate, and demand begins broadening across more construction sectors. 

The downside case assumes several pressures converge at the same time: employment weakens further, financing becomes more difficult, project delays increase, the backlog declines, and cost pressures remain. 

I am not suggesting contractors build three separate companies or three completely different budgets. I am suggesting leadership understand what happens under each scenario. 

What happens to revenue and gross margin? How much backlog and cash do we need? When do we stop hiring or adjust overhead? Which capital expenditures can wait? Which investments continue regardless of conditions? At what point does declining executable backlog trigger a change in strategy? 

Those decisions are much easier to make today than when everyone is already under pressure. 

Liquidity is strategic flexibility 

Cash is sometimes treated as money simply sitting on the balance sheet. During uncertain markets, liquidity is much more valuable than that because it creates options. 

It allows a company to retain a strong employee through a temporary slowdown, purchase materials earlier when there is a legitimate financial advantage, absorb a delayed project, and pursue an opportunity when a competitor cannot. 

Most importantly, liquidity prevents desperation. Companies under financial pressure often make poor decisions because they run out of time. They bid projects they should not bid, accept margins they should not accept, borrow under unfavorable terms, delay necessary investments, and make personnel decisions based on what happens next week rather than where the company needs to be next year. 

Liquidity buys time, and time creates better decisions. 

Do not cut away your ability to grow 

Preparing for slower growth does not mean putting the company into recession mode. That would be another mistake. 

If conditions weaken, contractors should absolutely challenge overhead, delay unnecessary purchases, protect cash, review expenses, and improve collections. But there is a difference between eliminating waste and eliminating capacity. 

Your strongest estimator is capacity. Your best project manager is capacity. Your service department is capacity. Leadership development is capacity. Technology that improves estimating, project visibility, and job costing may also be capacity. 

A contractor can cut so deeply during a slowdown that the company survives the downturn but is unable to take advantage of the recovery. That is why I prefer flexibility over fear. 

Protect the capabilities that make the company stronger. Challenge the expenses that do not. 

What I would be doing going into 2027 

If I were sitting with a roofing contractor today, preparing next year’s business plan, I would begin with the executable backlog rather than the total backlog. 

I would review what is realistically scheduled at 30, 60, 90, 180, and 270 days, then stress-test it. What happens if one large project is delayed by 90 days? What happens if two projects move? Which customers represent the greatest concentration risk? Which jobs still depend on financing or other approvals? Which projects have aggressive margin assumptions? 

I would review the bid pipeline and hit rates. I would increase business development before backlog becomes critical rather than waiting until crews need work. I would watch collections and cash conversion closely, preserve available credit even if I did not expect to use it, challenge major capital expenditures, and protect strong people and productive operating capacity. 

Most importantly, I would establish clear trigger points for when the company changes course. If the executable backlog falls below a predetermined level, what actions are taken? If gross margin misses plan for two consecutive months, what gets reviewed? If accounts receivable starts to stretch, who owns the response? If major projects move, when does labor planning change? 

Those decisions should not be made for the first time during a crisis. The time to make them is now. 

Planning without pretending to know the future 

I do not believe roofing executives should plan as though a recession is inevitable. I also do not believe they should assume today’s economic pressures will work themselves out. 

The more prudent position lies between those two extremes. Build the company around a reasonable expectation of slower growth, increasingly uneven demand and continued cost volatility. Maintain enough liquidity and operating flexibility to withstand a genuine downturn if several pressures converge. 

At the same time, preserve enough capacity to take advantage of opportunity if conditions improve. 

The economic signals may continue to disagree. That does not mean leadership has to be uncertain. We do not need to know exactly what the economy will do next. We need to build roofing companies capable of succeeding under more than one outcome. 

That is not pessimism. It is responsible business planning.